Key points
- Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey has said his party has “a real/genuine chance of taking control of Merton Council” and expects gains in inner London boroughs such as Southwark, Lambeth, Camden and Ealing.
- Green Party co‑leader Zack Polanski has said he “expects and hopes to win the mayor of Hackney,” where the party is aiming to unseat Labour for the first time since the mayoral post was created in 2002.
- Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has declared that he believes Reform will win Havering, planning to visit the borough on the morning after the 7 May local elections to celebrate what he expects will be the party’s first council victory in London.
- Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has avoided making bold predictions, stressing that “the only poll that matters is on 7 May” and that the Tories are “fighting for every single seat on every single council in London.”
- Labour Party chair Anna Turley has echoed that cautious tone, saying Labour is “fighting for every single vote” and that the party has “a strong story to tell in London,” without offering confident forecasts.
- Professor Tony Travers of the London School of Economics has warned of a potential “political earthquake” in the capital, with Labour and the Conservatives both at risk of sizable seat losses while the Greens and Reform UK look set to gain ground.
- At the 2022 London borough elections, Labour took 21 of the 32 councils; the Conservatives five; the Lib Dems three; and two councils were left in no overall control, while Aspire ran Tower Hamlets, including a directly elected mayor.
Merton (South London News) May 5, 2026
How are the smaller parties targeting Labour heartlands?
As reported by BBC News, Sir Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, has framed the 7 May contests as a potential breakthrough moment for his party in London, particularly in Merton. He stated:
“We have a genuine opportunity to seize control of Merton Council,”
adding that if the party can extend its reach into inner‑London boroughs such as Southwark, Lambeth, Camden and Ealing, the Lib Dems could
“enjoy a successful night in many regions of London.”
According to BBC analysis, Davey has suggested that the party’s gains would come mainly at Labour’s expense in some of its traditional strongholds, though he also expects to pick up seats from the Conservatives in certain areas, particularly where local dissatisfaction with national‑level politics has built up.
In Hackney, Green Party co‑leader Zack Polanski has set his sights squarely on the mayoralty. As reported by BBC London, Polanski said he
“anticipates and aspires to win the mayoralty of Hackney,”
which would mark the first time a non‑Labour candidate has held the directly elected post since it was created in 2002.
The New Statesman has noted that Green gains in Hackney have already begun to erode Labour’s century‑long dominance in parts of the borough, and that the party is positioning the mayoral race as a key test of its broader strength in inner‑London working‑class and younger, environmentally‑focused constituencies.
Reform UK’s Nigel Farage has taken an even more definitive line. In an interview with The Standard, Farage was quoted as saying:
“There’s no doubt, in my mind, we’re going to win Havering,”
and he has already planned to travel to the East London borough on the morning after the 7 May vote to mark what he expects will be Reform’s first council victory in the capital.
Why are the Conservatives and Labour being more cautious?
By contrast, national leaders from the Conservative Party and Labour have steered away from confident predictions. As reported by BBC News, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said:
“The only poll that matters is on 7 May and I am fighting for every single seat on every single council in London.”
BBC London has also observed that Badenoch has cast her party as
“the only credible alternative to Labour at these London elections,”
while acknowledging that competition has intensified in many formerly secure Conservative areas in outer London.
Labour Party chair Anna Turley has struck a similarly guarded note. In remarks to BBC News ahead of polling day, Turley said:
“I know we are fighting for every single vote because we have a strong story to tell in London,”
but she has stopped short of forecasting overall control or specific borough gains.
Analysis from the Economics Observatory and the BBC has suggested that Labour’s caution is driven by polling data showing the party has lost roughly a third of the support it enjoyed in the 2022 London borough elections, with both the Conservatives and, to a lesser extent, the Greens and Reform UK picking up voters.
What do the indicators say about a “political earthquake”?
The term “political earthquake” has been used by Professor Tony Travers of the London School of Economics to describe the potential scale of change in London’s council chamber composition after 7 May.
In recent commentary, Travers has suggested that Labour, which currently holds around 1,100–1,150 of London’s 1,800 councillor seats, could lose several hundred if current polling trends hold.
BBC News and the Economics Observatory have both highlighted that such a swing could put boroughs such as Barking and Dagenham, Camden, Greenwich, Hackney, Haringey, Islington, Lewisham, Newham and Southwark at risk of Labour losing control or seeing their majorities slimmed significantly.
The Conservatives, who won five London councils in 2022 and held 400+ seats across the capital that year, are also projected to see their numbers fall to a new historic low, with both the Greens and Reform UK expected to be the main beneficiaries of the shift.
At the last full London borough elections in 2022, Labour won 21 of the 32 councils, while the Conservatives held five, the Liberal Democrats three and two were left in no overall control; Aspire ran Tower Hamlets, including a directly elected mayor.
Background of the development
Local elections in London have long functioned as a barometer for national party strength, not least because the capital supplies a large share of Labour’s parliamentary MPs and has historically been a Labour stronghold. The 2022 contests saw Labour expand its control to 21 councils, including notable gains in Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet, which had been long‑held Conservative bastions.
Since then, national‑level factors such as disillusionment with the cost‑of‑living crisis, dissatisfaction with aspects of Labour’s governance and the rise of both the Greens and Reform UK have reshaped the political landscape. Regional polling for 2026 shows Labour’s vote share in London down by roughly a third from 2022, while the Greens and Reform have both gained substantial ground, particularly in working‑class and younger urban ward areas.
The predictions from Davey, Polanski and Farage, therefore, reflect a broader shift in which smaller parties are increasingly confident about challenging Labour and the Conservatives in London’s 32 boroughs, while the two main parties temper their language ahead of the final results.
Prediction for how this development can affect London voters
If the current polling and pundit forecasts are accurate, the outcomes of London’s 7 May local elections could reshape the daily experience of governance for many residents. Labour voters may find themselves in boroughs where services are now delivered by coalitions involving the Greens or the Liberal Democrats, or by non‑Labour majorities, particularly in historic strongholds such as Hackney, Camden and Southwark.
Conservative voters in outer‑London boroughs may see their traditional local representation shrink, with Reform UK or the Greens gaining council seats and influencing decisions on housing, transport and environmental policy.
For Londoners more broadly, the potential “political earthquake” could mean a more fragmented council landscape, where cross‑party cooperation or minority administrations become more common. This could lead to more negotiation‑heavy decision‑making on local budgets, planning and social services, but also to a more diverse set of policy priorities reflecting the varied interests of Greens, Lib Dems, Labour and Reform UK councillors.
